Structural Reliability Assessment with Fuzzy Probabilities
نویسنده
چکیده
The prediction of the behavior and reliability of engineering structures and systems is often plagued by uncertainty and imprecision caused by sparse data, poor measurements and linguistic information. Accounting for such limitations complicates the mathematical modeling required to obtain realistic results in engineering analyses. The framework of imprecise probabilities provides a mathematical basis to deal with these problems which involve both probabilistic and non-probabilistic sources of uncertainty. A common feature of the various concepts of imprecise probabilities is the consideration of an entire set of probabilistic models in one analysis. But there are differences between the concepts in the mathematical description of this set and in the theoretical connection to the probabilistic models involved. This study is focused on fuzzy probabilities, which combine a probabilistic characterization of variability with a fuzzy characterization of imprecision. We discuss how fuzzy modeling can allow a more nuanced approach than interval-based concepts. The application in engineering is demonstrated by means of two examples.
منابع مشابه
Reliability Assessment of Power Generation Systems in Presence of Wind Farms Using Fuzzy Logic Method
A wind farm is a collection of wind turbines built in an area to provide electricity. Wind power is a renewable energy resource and an alternative to non-renewable fossil fuels. In this paper impact of wind farms in power system reliability is investigate and a new procedure for reliability assessment of wind farms in HL1 level is proposed. In proposed procedure, application of Fuzzy – Markov f...
متن کاملIntensity Assessment of Pedestrian Collisions in City of Mashhad based on Fuzzy Probabilities
Fuzzy probabilities have been widely used in the areas of risk assessment and decision making. Here, we propose a system based on fuzzy probabilities for assessing the intensity of pedestrian collisions and levels of injury. The proposed approach uses possibility probability distributions for demonstrating fuzzy probabilities. A composition of possibility probability distributions (fuzzy probab...
متن کاملSafety Assessment using Fuzzy Theory
Uncertain input parameters may result from "fuzziness", "randomness" or "fuzzy randomness". With the use of fuzzy set theory, uncertain input parameters may be described mathematically as fuzzy variables or fuzzy random variables and may be integrated into safety assessment analysis. With the aid of -discretization involving the multiple solution of special optimization problems, fuzzy input pa...
متن کاملRisk Assesing by Fuzzy Logic-algorithmic Fault Tree
The new method for risk assessment of the man-machine system functioning is proposed. The feature of the method is combining the fuzzy fault tree analysis and theory of fuzzy reliability of algorithmic processes. This provides a consideration from a unified framework the structural accidents with algorithms of its detecting and avoiding. Method also allows to use fuzzy “if-then” rules about man...
متن کاملAn Interface for Enhancing Repeatability in Human Reliability Analysis
In Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) methods, the estimation of Human Error Probabilities (HEPs) usually requires the assessment of the Performance Shaping Factors (PSFs) characterizing the given contextual scenario in which the tasks are performed. The objective of this work is to develop a visual interface to help the safety analysts in the PSFs assessment. Aiming at the increased repeatabilit...
متن کامل